Introduction
In recent years, obesity treatment has been undergoing a major transformation, and it is expected to progress dramatically by 2025.
In this blog post, we will examine how obesity medicine may evolve, based on the key points from IQVIA’s latest report, “Outlook for obesity in 2025: more than a transition year,” and highlight the crucial aspects that I am personally paying close attention to.
Trends in the Anti-Obesity Drug Market in 2024 and Prospects for 2025
In 2024, the global anti-obesity drug market rapidly grew to over $30 billion worldwide. This surge was primarily driven by two new drugs—Tirzepatide (brand name: Zepbound) and Semaglutide (brand name: Wegovy)—which quickly gained popularity in the market. Both medications have been highly regarded for their remarkable therapeutic effects and have expanded their market share significantly within a short period.
Amid this rapid growth in demand, concerns arose about shortages of these medications. However, in December 2024, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially announced that the shortage of Tirzepatide (Zepbound) had been resolved. Furthermore, in February 2025, it was publicly reported that supplies of Semaglutide (Wegovy) had also stabilized. As a result, from 2025 onward, the anti-obesity drug market will be able to meet demand in a stable manner.
With the shortage resolved, the FDA pushed major compounding pharmacies to transition to official products. They also provided a grace period for migrating to official products, thereby supporting the normalization of the entire market.
In 2025, major changes in diagnostic criteria for obesity are also expected. Rather than relying solely on BMI, it is anticipated that risk of comorbidities and body composition (such as fat distribution and muscle mass) will be taken into account. Concurrently, the expansion of coverage by public and private insurance is expected to make treatments more accessible, improving both patient treatment continuity and therapeutic outcomes.
As real-world data (RWD) is accumulated and utilized, the accuracy of treatment efficacy evaluations will increase, likely leading to better long-term adherence in the future.
Furthermore, attention should be given to new anti-obesity drugs that operate via different mechanisms (see Figure 2). In addition to GLP-1/GIP-based therapies, drugs targeting activin/myostatin inhibition, amylin analogs, and FGF21 agonists are in clinical trials, broadening the range of treatment options. Notably, these emerging medications may further improve both treatment adherence and effectiveness.
Four Key Points That Will Transform Obesity Treatment
Below are the points I personally consider most crucial.
◆ 1. Adoption of AOM in Real-World Settings and the Use of Digital Health
Anti-obesity medications (AOM) are increasingly being adopted in clinical practice. Notably, expanded coverage by public insurance and the growing introduction of AOM in general clinics have created an environment in which patients with obesity—from mild to severe—can benefit.
On the other hand, current data shows that treatment adherence remains low when medication is the only intervention. This is where digital health technologies come into play. Through apps and online behavioral modification programs, we can provide continuous support to patients. As a result, therapy can extend beyond medication alone, fostering comprehensive lifestyle improvements that include behavior change.
◆ 2. Revising Obesity Diagnostic Criteria and Advancing Personalized Medicine
Obesity diagnostic criteria are projected to shift from the traditional BMI-focused model to a new approach that evaluates real-world risk and body composition (including fat distribution). This will enable more accurate diagnoses based on the actual health risks faced by each individual.
Backed by these new diagnostic standards, we are poised to see the realization of “personalized medicine.” Tailoring treatment to each patient’s unique characteristics will further improve outcomes in obesity management.
◆ 3. Impact on Healthcare Economics and Sustainability Challenges
As obesity treatment becomes more widespread, the potential financial impact of medication costs on healthcare systems cannot be ignored. If the public health insurance system continues to promote AOM, increased financial burdens on healthcare budgets are likely.
Therefore, health economic assessments and long-term outcomes will be critical. If it can be clearly demonstrated that these therapies prevent comorbidities like diabetes and cardiovascular disease and reduce healthcare costs in the long run, the cost-effectiveness argument will be made, and further adoption will be encouraged. However, policymakers must find ways to bridge the gap between short-term payment burdens and long-term benefits.
◆ 4. Evolution of Anti-Obesity Drugs into “Comprehensive Metabolic” Medications
Anti-obesity drugs are transitioning beyond merely reducing body weight and are increasingly recognized for their potential to treat multiple comorbid conditions such as cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and metabolic dysfunction–associated liver disease (MAFLD/MASH). Indeed, Semaglutide and Tirzepatide have already demonstrated efficacy in cardiovascular and renal conditions, paving the way for further approvals in other therapeutic areas.
Survodutide (by Boehringer Ingelheim), in particular, is expected to have benefits for metabolic dysfunction–associated liver disease. As the indications of anti-obesity medications expand, we anticipate major changes in the obesity drug market.
The Future of Obesity Treatment
From 2025 onward, the outlook for obesity treatment will move toward a new healthcare model in which we “design not just the medication regimen, but the entire lifestyle.” Integrating digital technologies with pharmacotherapy and customizing treatment according to individual patient backgrounds will be key to successful obesity management.
References
- Outlook for obesity in 2025: more than a transition year: IQVIA
Comment